We've talked about the things you can measure, the stats and numbers and things that come in neat, pretty packages. But what about those qualities that every playoff team needs that you can't necessarily quantify with digits? It's often these little things that set the contenders apart from the teams that get swept...although they're often harder to pin down. Time to break down Intangibles:
Follow the Leader: It's in the postseason that the true leaders in a locker room often emerge, but going into the playoffs with a solid leadership core will also be important. As young as the Caps are, they have this area pretty well covered.
You have captain Chris Clark who could be returning from injury any day and whose steady hand and calming influence has been huge for this team these last few years. You have Olie Kolzig, wise veteran and backstopper in a Stanley Cup Final, a leader on and off the ice. You have Sergei Fedorov, living legend and future hall-of-famer; he speaks, you listen, end of story. Then there are guys like Matt Bradley, Brooks Laich, Alex Ovechkin, Tom Poti...guys in various stages of their career who lead by example and are willing to provide a face and a voice for the team when needed.
As for the Flyers, they've got one of the best leaders in the league in Jason Smith and Mike Richards seems to be stepping up...but beyond that there have been questions among both fans and the media about how much leadership there is in that room. There are some veterans, sure, guys who have been to the show and guys who have won at all different levels - it just seems like people are questioning how active those veterans have been down the stretch. To be fair, of course, I know very little about how the Flyers operate and I've never personally been behind the locker room doors so...if any Flyers fans are kicking around here, feel free to enlighten me. Advantage: Capitals
Learning the Ropes: It's been said many times - playoff experience cannot be underestimated once you get into the show. And for all the talk about the Caps having an inexperienced postseason lineup, the Flyers' roster isn't exactly teeming with playoff vets either. Neither goaltender has much playoff experience (in fact Biron has none; Huet has a whole 6 games). Neither coach has been in the NHL playoffs, although both have led their teams to Calder Cup championships in recent years. Each team has Stanley Cup champs on their roster - although I'll take Fedorov over Hatcher any day.
But when it comes down to it, the Caps have 15 players playing their first playoff game tonight, the Flyers have 9. Rookie coaches, semi-rookie superstars, AHL championships... Advantage: Even (or maybe I'll give a slight edge to the Caps...because I can).
Let's Get Physical: Much has been made about how tough the Flyers are to play, how they are the reincarnation of the Broad Street Bullies, blah blah blah. Yes, they're physical. Yes, they ran into some disciplinary "issues" early in the season. Yes...it's Philly. But just as the Flyers are not a team of goons, the Caps are not exactly a team to be taken lightly - and it's something that hasn't been brought up enough.
Everyone talks about Ovechkin and Backstrom being targeted by the Flyers, and they probably will be - the Flyers would be smart to target them (cleanly, by the way...cleanly). In Ovechkin's case, though, he isn't shy about hitting or being hit. In fact, he seems to derive energy from physical play and actually ends up targeting those sent out to target him. As for Backstrom, he may not be the biggest or strongest guy out there but nothing in the way he plays suggests to me that he ever shies away from the rough stuff. We've seen him go into the corners with guys much bigger than him and come out with the puck; we've also seen him do that and fall down, so it obviously depends on the day.
And then the rest. Bradley, Brashear, Laich, Gordon, Laing, Steckel, Erskine, Morrisonn, Jurcina, Poti...any of them seem like softies? The Flyers have more fighting majors...the Caps have more controlled physicality. Advantage: Capitals, just for the controlled part alone
Momentum: Flyers fans would have me remind you that while the Caps were winning their last 7, Philly went 7-1-1 in their last nine against "tougher" opponents. That's...great. However, it isn't just the final seven games for the Caps - it was the final seven in a row that was part of winning eleven of their last twelve that was part of winning fourteen of their last eighteen that was part of going 37-17-1 since Thanksgiving. It took them until the final day of their season to get into the playoffs because of the hole they'd dug, but the Caps have consistently and calmly been one of the best teams in the league since late November. Advantage: Capitals
Consistency: Fail to show up one night in the playoffs and it can be devastating. Fail to bounce back from a bad night...and it can be season-ending. The Flyers have suffered from inconsistency all year long, putting together small winning streaks only to have things derailed by a losing streak - it's why they had to struggle to make the postseason in the first place, after spending part of the early months holding down the top spot in the Atlantic. They even went on a lengthy 10-game losing streak just two months ago, and even dropped games to teams in the "weak" Southeast division - Florida, Tampa and yes, the Caps.
Meanwhile after Boudreau took over the helm the Caps practically eliminated losing streaks altogether and didn't lose back to back games in regulation until "the lost weekend" against Boston and the Pens. It was supposed to derail their season - they responded by winning eleven of their last twelve games. Advantage: Capitals
Bottom Line
So many of these things are hard to predict based on regular season alone, and that's exactly what these are - predictions. Who knows what leaders will emerge, how physical this series will be, which veterans will prove the most beneficial. It's the beauty of the playoffs, the unknowns. On any given night there can be an unsung hero or a surprise outcome. In the end I like the Caps in this one only because there is something truly special going on here that I just don't see in a Philly team that is very talented in their own right.
If the little things win the day, the Caps have those little things and more in spades.
Overall Advantage: Caps all the way, baby!
Friday, April 11, 2008
Breaking Down the First Round: Intangibles
Thursday, April 10, 2008
Meet...Martin Biron
One day left; anyone hyperventilating yet? Time to cool down a little, take a breath...and meet Martin Biron.
Name: Martin Gaston Biron (yes, really.)
Born: August 15, 1977
From: Lac St. Charles, PQ
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 165 lbs
Position: Goalie
Career with Philadelphia: Traded to the Flyers February 27, 2007; signed a 2-year, $7 million extension a month later
2007-08 Season: 30-20-9, 2.59 GAA, .918 S%
Caps Connection: Younger brother Mathieu formed half of the "gruesome twosome" on defense for the Caps in the 2005-06 season.
Greatest Accomplishments:
Hobbies: talking; chatting; gabbing; chewing the fat; dishing
Favorite Movies: Something to Talk About; He Said, She Said; Look Who's Talking
Wednesday, April 09, 2008
Breaking Down the First Round: Special Teams
Since the lockout power plays and penalty killing have become more and more important - but it's always been a key ingredient of a successful playoff team. Time to break down Special Teams...
Power Play Power: Philadelphia is a scary, scary team when they have the extra man and have been among the league leaders throughout the regular season in power play effectiveness. In fact as the regular season came to a close they were being held off only by a pesky bunch of Canadiens for first in the NHL (although the gap between first and second was a significant 3%). As for the Caps, they trended up as the season went on and after toying with the top five in the league they finished out the year a respectable 10th, 18.8% compared to Philly's 21.8%. Advantage: Flyers
Down a Man: Maybe it's something in the water in Philly. Maybe they're just so good that being down a man doesn't affect them that much...or maybe they're just used to having someone in the penalty box. Philly's penalty killing far outranks the skill of the Caps (although again, that's an area that has trended up this season and should improve when Dave Steckel returns), finishing the year 10th best in the league at 83.2% effective compared to the 25th ranked Caps at just over 80%. Advantage: Flyers
Discipline, Discipline, Discipline: It should surprise no one to learn that the Flyers were among the most penalized teams in the league this season - and that's just minor penalties. Their 388 times in the box was tied for second highest in the league. The Caps, on the other hand, have been a much more disciplined team and ranked 18th in the league in that area. 27 times this season the Flyers took at least 6 penalties in a single game...ten more than the Caps. Advantage: Capitals
Individual Efforts: The Caps may have the league's most prolific scorer of power play goals in Alexander Ovechkin (a franchise record-tying 22 on the season) but the Flyers have had some individual standouts in their own right. In fact, they have three of the top thirty power play scorers in their lineup - and Daniel Briere's 37 power play points equals the total output of Ovechkin. Nicklas Backstrom's 25 points and Mike Green's 23 were good enough to crack the top 70... Advantage: Flyers
Power Outage: Nothing kills the momentum of a power play more than a shorthanded goal, and both teams have been just about in the middle of the road when it comes to giving up these heartbreakers. The Caps were bitten 8 times this season, the Flyers 6...of course two of the goals against Washington came in one game courtesy of Daniel Alfredsson and the Senators. Advantage: Even
Striking While Injured: The Flyers may not give up a lot of shorthanded goals - but they do know how to score them. They finished in a tie for third in the league with a whopping 13 shorthanded goals on the season, besting the Caps in that area by 8. Mike Richards has five shorthanded goals all by himself, equalling the total output of the entire Caps' lineup. That Washington penalty kill will need to be on the lookout for the quick breakout pass, that's for sure. Advantage: Flyers
Road Weariness vs. Home Cooking: Playing at home seems to juice up the Caps' power play, which jumped up to around 20% this season when hosting teams at the Phone Booth. Away from DC, however, it dipped below 17%, something that won't make going into a hostile (or THE hostile) environment of Wachovia Center any easier. Philly, for what it's worth, was 23% effective at home and just about 20% away...but both markers were ranked third in the league. Advantage: Flyers
Getting Testy: It wouldn't be the Broad Street Bullies without a few fisticuffs, right? The Flyers drew 65 fighting majors this season, 12 misconducts, 6 game misconducts and 2 match penalties...and had PIM totals over twenty minutes 25 times. Not surprisingly the bulk of this special sin bin time comes against the Penguins. The Caps weren't exactly shy, just...less feisty, racking up 35 fighting majors, one misconduct and two game misconducts. Advantage: ...does anyone really win this one?
Bottom Line
The Broad Street Bullies may have disappeared for a year or two but even with the addition of well-known softie Daniel Briere, they're back and more obnoxious than ever. Their tenacity at drawing penalties, misconducts, and suspensions is balanced out only by their skilled attack when someone is in the penalty box - regardless of whether that someone is wearing orange and black or not.
As for the Caps, it'll be interesting to see how they match up against a Flyers team that has been, on paper, a more dominant special teams club. The Caps have improved over the beginning of the season but have hit rough patches in both the power play and penalty killing departments - neither is helped by their inability to score 5 on 3, or their inability to kill off a 2 man advantage.
Overall Advantage: Sorry, Caps fans...this one goes to Philly.
Tuesday, April 08, 2008
Meet...Daniel Briere
Playoff series are a great way to get to know another team - but it's always fun to do a little scouting ahead of time, isn't it? We'll start with none other than the magical spearing midget himself, Daniel Briere.
Name: Daniel Briere
Born: October 6, 1977
From: Gatineau, PQ
Height: 5'10" (...uh-huh. Sure.)
Weight: 181 lbs
Position: Center
Career with Philadelphia: Signed as a ridiculously overpaid free agent on July 1; currently serving out an 8-year, $52 million sentence contract with a no-trade clause
2007-08 Season: 79 games played; 31-41-72, 68 PIM, -22
Caps Connection: The "Incident"...
Greatest accomplishments: Winning the 2007 NHL All-Star Game MVP; convincing Gepetto that he was a real live boy
Hobbies: big game hunting, jabbing a stick into the midsections of unsuspecting passersby, knitting little woolen booties for himself
Favorite Movies: The Wizard of Oz; Rudy; The Station Agent
Other Fun Facts: Once spray-painted himself orange, dyed his hair green and danced around the locker room as an Oompa Loompa to cheer up his team after a loss
Breaking Down the First Round: Defense
Today I want to talk about our defense. The best defense is an offense, and the best offense is a defense. The reason why offense is the best defense is because in hockey, the team that scores the most wins. And if our offense outscores their offense, they'll be defenseless. Their defense might be able to stop our offense, but it can't stop our defense. Because when we're on defense they have to be on offense, and if we have an offensive-minded defense, there's no way they can defend us.
Now I don't mean to be defensive, but some of you might find this offensive. We're going to call our defense our offense, and our offense our defense. That way we'll remember to use our defense as an offense, and our offense as a defense against their offense. And that'll totally confuse 'em.
Okay, let's go out and play some hockey!
--NHL Network ad
...what he said. Moving on to Defensive Stability:
Caps Defensemen
Puck Movers - Mike Green, Tom Poti, Steve Eminger
Body Pounders - John Erskine, Milan Jurcina
Steady as a Rock - Shaone Morrisonn, Jeff Schultz
Flyers Defensemen
Puck Movers - Kimmo Timonen, Randy Jones
Body Pounders - Derian Hatcher, Jason Smith
Steady as a Rock - Kimmo Timonen, Braydon Coburn
Pluses and Minuses: Numbers only tell so much of the story, but for a defenseman you can tell a lot by their +/- rating. Here is where the Caps have an edge, helped immensely by the fact that the team as a whole has been playing extremely tight defense over the last 20-30 games. Only two defensemen, Lepisto and Eminger, are a minus - and neither played more than 20 games all year. On their entire defensive roster, the Flyers have four minus players...including Rory Fitzpatrick, who is a -12 in just 19 games this year. Advantage: Capitals
Defense from the Offense: The Caps finished out the season on a defensive high note, allowing only 65 goals in the last 30 games with 4+ goals allowed only 4 times during that period. Only five players on the regular roster are minus players, with no one (besides Semin, shocking) in double digits. In Philly's last 30 games they've allowed 84 goals despite posting back to back shutouts to close the season, and were lit up for 4+ goals 11 times during that stretch. Nine regular roster players are in the minus column, including Daniel Briere bringing up the rear with a -22 rating. Advantage: Capitals
Offense from the Defense: Philadelphia's defense has chipped in 143 points this year, including 30+ point seasons from Timonen, Jones and Coburn - but beyond those three it's single digits in points for all of the blueliners but Smith, who has 10. The Caps' D has contributed just a little more with 148 points and every player, even Sami Lepisto, has at least a point. Green obviously leads the way with 56 points (18G, 38A) but five of the top seven defensemen have double digit point totals. Advantage: Capitals
Between the Pipes: The last line of defense is, of course, the goaltender - and in Philly, it's seemed like they've been on an eternal quest for stability in net since Ron Hextall retired. The latest leg of the journey has brought Martin Biron to town from Buffalo and he's been a big part of their resurgence after last year's disappointing season. He picked up his 30th win with a shutout against the Pens in the season closer and posted season numbers of a 2.59 GAA with .918 save percentage, but he has trouble controlling rebounds and often looks out of position even when he's "hot".
For the Caps, the goaltending situation has been a bit of a rollercoaster all year long, but with the addition of Cristobal Huet it has become much more stable. Both Huet and Kolzig have played extremely well down the stretch, with Huet in particular finding a hot streak at exactly the right time to take over the number 1 slot. Huet's 32 wins are 11th in the league, his 2.32 GAA ranked 10th, and his .920 save percentage tied for 6th. Advantage: Capitals
Laying Down the Body: 1028 blocked shots for the Capitals...compared to 1265 blocked shots for the Flyers. There's no contest here. Four different players in Philadelphia have triple digit shot block totals, including Jason Smith's 204 which trails only walking bruises Mike Komisarek (227) and Anton Volchenkov (209). Three of those four rank in the top 30 in the league. For the Caps, Tom Poti has been a shot-blocking machine in his own right with 119 (good for a tie for 40th in the league), followed closely by Milan Jurcina's 107 blocked shots. And of course, don't forget Quintin Laing with 52...in just 39 games. Advantage: Flyers
Bottom Line
Despite the skill and defensive ability of someone like Kimmo Timonen, the Flyers are still struggling in their own end - both in net and along the blue line. While they've revamped their forwards and have found a balanced attack up front, the defensive corps of the Broad Street Bullies has changed very little from the days when Bobby Clarke ran things. The fact that Derian Hatcher even still has a job there is proof that there is still work to do.
In Washington, on the other hand, inexperience and uncertainty are slowly fading away to reveal a very promising young group, shored up by the veteran presence of Tom Poti and the breakout seasons of Mike Green and Shaone Morrisonn. They're big but mobile, strong but quick...with the possible exception being someone like John Erskine, although even he can hoof it when he needs to and can make the occasional smart plays in his own zone and on the penalty kill (when he's not the one in the box, of course).
Overall advantage: No surprise here - Caps all the way.
Monday, April 07, 2008
Breaking Down the First Round: Offense
We've got a bit of time on our hands thanks to the fact that we'll have to wait until Friday for our series to start. I guess it's been four long years...we can wait another day or two, right?
So to kill a bit of time and sort out this matchup we'll be breaking down the various pieces that go into building a championship team and comparing the Caps to the Flyers, a different piece every day. It all leads up to the big event on Friday when the Flyers travel to DC for Game 1 - which will oddly coincide with the first ever Cheap Seats Playoff Gameday Preview Extravaganza!
Up first...Offensive Firepower.
Caps' Leading Scorers:
The Big Guns - Ovechkin, Semin, Green
The Hidden Treasures - Laich, Kozlov
The Dishers - Backstrom, Poti, Fedorov
Flyers' Leading Scorers:
The Big Guns - Briere, Prospal, Knuble
The Hidden Treasures - Upshall, Umberger
The Dishers - Richards, Timonen, Jones
Biscuits in the Basket: When it comes to a balanced attack, the Flyers seem to have found a magic formula. They have seven players with 20+ goals and no one player with more than 33; assists are equally close and even more widespread. For the Caps, the addition of secondary scoring beyond just the top line has been a slow one but in recent weeks it's picked up and it's been a big reason for their winning ways of late. Still, the bulk of the goal-scoring is carried out by Ovechkin, the bulk of the assists coming from Backstrom. Advantage: Flyers
Facing Off: The Caps continue to assert their dominance in the faceoff circle under the capable hands of centers Boyd Gordon and Dave Steckel, and have gotten even better with the shrewd addition of veteran center Sergei Fedorov. During the regular season they cracked the top 10, sitting 8th overall with a 51.2% success rate; of the teams bound for the playoffs they're 4th, trailing only Detroit, the Rangers and Ottawa. Meanwhile the Flyers were just under 50% effective in the regular season, good enough for 20th in the league and 11th of the 16 playoff teams. Advantage: Capitals
Shooting Gallery: Washington's tendency to pelt opposition goaltenders with a high volume of shots was aided immensely by Ovechkin's league-leading 446 shots on goal, but the team in general still ranked 6th in the league. Their average of 31 shots per game edges out the Flyers' average shot output of 28.8 shots per game, ranked 16th in the league during the regular season. Advantage: Capitals
Score First, Score Often: Both teams are clicking right along, scoring just under 3 goals per game with the Flyers holding the slightest of margins at 2.99 G/G versus the Caps at 2.90. However, the Caps have a better record when scoring first, managing to hold the lead in 70% of those games as compared to the Flyers, who blow it a little more to win only 67%. Advantage: Even
Winning a Period at a Time: It's always easier to play with a lead, and the Caps have become notorious for jumping out early - they were the fifth best first period team this season with 75 early markers, ten more than 15th place Philadelphia. It's in the second period, however, where the Flyers were not only prolific but dominant. Their 93 goals in the middle frame tied the Avalanche as best in the league, while the Caps sat at 15th with 78. And in the tiebreaker period, the third? Philly picked up 84 goals (good enough for 7th), the Caps, 78. Advantage: Flyers (slightly)
O from the D: The big offensive weapon on the Flyers blueline is All-Star Kimmo Timonen; for the Caps, it's Should-Have-Been-All-Star Mike Green. Greenie is certainly the bigger offensive threat than any one of the Flyers defensemen, though, with his mobility and slickness that lets him literally skate circles around the other team's D. His 18 goals are twice as many as any of the Flyers; after him, though, there's a significant dropoff and the stats get a little closer.
Both the Caps and Flyers have gotten at least a goal from every blueliner logging significant ice time this season (read: more than 30 games); both get significant assist totals out of their defensive corps, as well, with the Flyers edging the Caps at 115 assists from the blue line compared to 114 for DC. Advantage: Capitals by a Green hair
Bottom Line
When it comes down to it, these are two tremendously explosive offensive teams - which should make for quite a workout for the boys in net and along the blueline on both sides of the ice. Over the course of the regular season the Flyers scored 245 goals, besting the Caps by just 7. While Philly scored by committee, the Caps depended on a steady diet of Ovechkin with a side order of secondary scoring to help him out.
For the Flyers, this even scoring touch is both good and bad. On the one hand, they can roll a number of offensive threats out at any given time, and you always have to be watching for the late guy in. Their forwards are fast and opportunistic, pouncing on turnovers to create a quick odd-man rush before the defense can recover. On the other hand, however, they have no one legitimate superstar scoring threat. They have a lot of 20-30 goal scorers but no one consistent offensive threat to explode when it's most needed.
The way the Caps score, it's the complete opposite. Ovechkin's 65 goals and 47 assists accounted for almost half of the total offense this year - which again, has good and bad aspects. Bad news first. Shut down Ovechkin, Kozlov and Backstrom and you seriously cripple the Caps' offense. Good news? Many have tried to shut down that line...and many have failed, hence the 65 goals and 47 assists from Ovechkin alone. Plus you do have guys like Green, Laich, Semin and Fedorov to pick up the slack.
Overall advantage: None. These teams can both shoot the puck, and this one will come down to defense and goaltending.
More on that tomorrow.
